The new Shorelight research study tracks F-1 visa rejections over the last decade, during which visa denials have not only increased throughout the board, but have become structurally focused in particular areas, especially in Africa and South Asia.
“When a student’s possibility of entry depends more on their country of origin than their scholastic qualifications or financing, the stability of the United States visa system is compromised,” states the report.
While across the board, rejection rates have actually climbed up from 23% in 2015 to 35% in 2025, they have likewise ended up being structurally concentrated in particular areas, the information shows.
“This matters in the context of sustained and growing international demand,” stated Shorelight CEO Tom Dretler: “Today, roughly 1.2 million brand-new students each year are looking for a Western degree taught in English, and that number continues to grow.”
“The US is not striking a ceiling; we are efficiently developing one through policy,” said Dretler, including that there remained a chance to course-correct and maintain America’s global management in attracting international trainees.
And while the refusal rate appeared to stabilise in 2023 and 2024, in 2015 saw a noteworthy upward trend in denials throughout Africa and in several nations in South Asia and the Middle East, with the report warning the current adjudication landscape in developing “localised refusal clusters”.
African nations have consistently seen the highest denial rates of any area, which reached an all-time high of 64% last year.
Most significantly, rejection rates in Somalia and Sierra Leone skyrocketed to 91% and 90% respectively, while Sudan’s rejection rate rose from 54% to 76% last year.
With African nations making up over half of the 19 countries targeted by Trump’s June 2025 travel ban, refusals from this region were likely gotten worse by the policy, which stopped F-1 visa issuance for trainees from the affected countries.
While every region experienced a rise in denials other than South America where they stayed steady, the report alerted the worldwide distribution of rejection rates was “increasingly polarised”, with more nations moving into the 70-80% category.
The US is not hitting a ceiling; we are effectively building one through policy
Tom Dretler, Shorelight
Notably, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India all saw considerable year-on-year spikes, with rejection rates in 2025 upwards of 60%.
The report raised heightened concerns about India, the US’s largest sending nation, alerting such a high denial rate was “cutting off a crucial talent pipeline for US universities, companies and the economy,” creating a “self-inflicted skill shortage”.
More broadly, it said US visa policy was running in “direct opposition” to global demographic realities– “ignoring a ‘market dividend’ that other rival countries are capitalising on”.
Noticeably, it keeps in mind the post-secondary student population of sub-Saharan Africa will swell to 90 million by 2050, with over half of that development originating exclusively from Nigeria– where trainees are currently obstructed from studying in the United States.
“The US is currently the only nation with the institutional capacity to handle this global growth, yet we are actively delivering our lead through a self-imposed skill embargo,” it states, pointing to “aggressive” recruitment expansion in nations such as France and China.
The report estimates the other ‘big 4’ countries are home to less than 400 organizations between them. While Germany has roughly 400 and China 3,000 universities, the US boasts 4,000 degree-granting organizations.
Elsewhere, it warns economic consequences of the “missed opportunity” are already being felt throughout US campuses and neighborhoods, which, offered the 36% drop in visa issuance last summer season, could be as high as $3bn lost in tuition earnings alone.
Shorelight’s professionals set out different suggestions for the government, calling for greater transparency in visa rejections, standardised monetary guidance, and specialised training for high-refusal consulates.
They argue present requirements require trainees to show nonimmigrant intent — even as many hope to gain career experience in the United States — and supporter for the growth of ‘double intent’ to F-1 applicants to minimize the risk of approximate and subjective denials.
What’s more, highlighting that over 70% of students consider the capability to acquire work experience when choosing a research study destination, the report requires the protecting of OPT by codifying it in US law– something recently put to Congress in a brand-new bipartisan expense.
The suggestions contribute to a growing chorus of sector advocacy as summer season visa season methods, consisting of NAFSA’s renewed needs for expedited visa consultations and processing for trainees and exchange visitors, along with their exemption from travel restrictions.
The PIE News reached out to the State Department for comment but didn’t instantly receive a reply.
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