The brand-new information, launched in IIE’s 2026 Spring Photo, revealed that 59% of institutions experienced a decline in international applications for next year, structure on the 17% decline in brand-new enrolments in 2025/26.
As such, of the 585 respondents, 63% said they anticipated a reduction in overall global student levels next year, with almost one in 4 expecting a “significant decrease”.
One of the many colleges experiencing a decline is California State University (CSU), Fresno, where the assistant vice president, global affairs, Eddie West, stated he was not surprised by the study’s findings.
“The minority of US organizations which have not experienced a decline are almost surely those firmly atop the rankings hierarchy, flawed though such rankings generally are,” stated West.
Among those anticipating the drops, 92% pointed out visa rejections and delays as barriers to enrolment, with US travel limitations (80%) and students selecting other destinations (77%) playing a substantial role.
The decline was most significant at the postgraduate level where 43% of organizations reported a “significant decrease”, compared to 31% at the undergraduate level.
Strikingly, over 60% of institutions saw a drop in applications from India, mostly due to soaring F-1 visa denials, as research study visa issuance to Indian applicants plummeted 62% last year.
“Students are not rejecting the United States; they are pricing in its volatility, and increasingly, the maths favours somewhere else,” said Sanjay Laul, founder of global recruitment platform MSM Unify.
“If anything, the study might understate the belief shift on the ground.
“When a family is dedicating 50– 60 lakh [up to US$ 70,000], typically loan-financed, a coin-flip visa outcome is not a danger they can rationalize,” said Laul, adding that visa unpredictability had “basically altered” the views of potential trainees.
In 2024/25, there were more than 360,000 Indian students at American colleges, the largest source market consisting of nearly a third of overall abroad enrolments in the US.
Raised F-1 refusal rates for Indian candidates have actually made outcomes feel approximate even for strong prospects
Sanjay Laul, MSM Unify
But after nearly 18 months of policy volatility under Trump’s 2nd presidency– consisting of extensive visa revocations, processing delays and the expected end of period of status– Indian trainees are progressively turning somewhere else.
American policy volatility is among numerous factors driving the shift from the ‘big 4’ to the so-called ‘huge fourteen’.
Laul pointed to Germany as the “clearest winner” among Indian trainees, whose interest in the location has actually doubled from 2022, where they see visa approval rates of 90-95% processed in just six working days.
Elsewhere, he highlighted the increasing appeal of Ireland for its English-medium education and access to Europe’s tech companies, and the UAE, where Indian students make up over 49% of total global trainees: “rising on distance and global branch schools”.
On top of US visa volatility, Indian trainees have been especially conscious modifications to post-study work opportunities, with Optional Practical Training (OPT) and H-1B both thought to be under risk from the Trump administration.
Laul said unpredictability about the work streams “strikes at the very heart of the Indian value calculation, which has actually always been education-to-career, not education alone.”
On the other hand, the snapshot survey revealed the percentage of United States universities reporting increased or stable applications from China increased from 58% in 2025 to 65% this spring, standing apart as the only one of the top 15 source nations to see a boost.
Somewhere else, 70% of institutions stated they would no longer recruit in countries affected by Trump’s travel restriction on 40 countries and areas — something that West said could be viewed as “playing the exact same transactional, zero-sum video game” as the current administration.
While acknowledging the genuine financial pressures dealing with United States institutions, West called the response a “timeless case of brief sightedness”, prompting colleges to “construct for a brighter future, which will come”.
“That consists of paying attention — in some method, shape, or type — to parts of the world beyond the so-called normal suspects, and engaging for long-lasting, mutual benefit, not short-term enrolment gain.”
And regardless of mainly being at the mercy of federal policy, West kept in mind that organizations still had the power to interact with students plainly and truthfully, to minimise unpredictability as much as possible, and to construct trust.
Moreover, Laul stated the institutions responding with versatility were the ones weather the storm most effectively, highlighting 2025/26 IIE information showing 72% of colleges provided deferments to spring 2026, and 56% provided them to fall 2026.
He advised universities to “diversify within India, not just beyond it”, and to “sell outcomes, not brand name”, restating: “the Indian family of 2026 is running a five-year career estimation.
Laul welcomed some positive signals from the survey, which revealed 84% of organizations still think about worldwide recruitment a concern and almost as lots of are holding or increasing recruitment budgets.
IIE deputy director of research study, examination & learning, Julie Baer, stated participants’ continued investment in international engagement worked as “an effective tip that United States institution of higher learnings continue to see the worth of worldwide education”.
< img src ="// www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%200%200'%3E%3C/svg%3E"/ > < img src="https://thepienews.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/SRT-Fairs-_-Ad-600-x-500px-V2.jpg"/ >