As widely forecasted, Black and Latino trainee registration is falling at elite organizations nationwide in the wake of the Supreme Court’s 2023 judgment limiting race-conscious admissions. Market modifications are most apparent at top-ranked private universities, however key shifts are also occurring throughout the system, with serious effects for Black and Latino students.
Researchers call the shifts a “cascade” impact. It works like this: First, underrepresented minority students who are not confessed to highly selective organizations instead attend state flagships or less selective organizations. Next, Black and Latino trainees who would otherwise have participated in state flagships are displaced to local, community, or for-profit colleges. These institutions tend to have less resources to support trainees, leading to outcomes like lower graduation rates and high student debt.
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The first wave of the waterfall impact is already apparent. Underrepresented minority enrollment is up at 4 out of 5 state flagship universities. One op-ed author declared that the pattern reveals that the ruling is “no disaster” for Black and Latino students. After all, trainees can still get a good education at a state flagship.
However, the disastrous secondary wave of the waterfall effect is still there; it’s just easy to miss out on. Within public universities, this wave is appearing in 2 ways.
Initially, lots of public universities are experiencing both waves of the cascade impact at the same time, that makes it tough to see that Black and Latino students are being turned away. These universities are getting minority trainees from the elite sector, however they are likewise losing other Black and Latino students because race-conscious admissions is now limited at state flagships. In these contexts, minority trainee percentages are fairly steady just due to the fact that the gains are balanced by the losses: addition with subtraction.
While 83 percent of state flagships acquired underrepresented racially minoritized trainees overall, increases in Black enrollment are not remarkable at many public institutions. Over half of state flagships saw gains of fewer than 10 Black students, or even losses. For example, the University of Maryland, College Park lost 52 Black trainees when comparing 2022-2023 typical enrollment with 2024 information.
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In a various group of public organizations, the secondary wave is especially difficult to see since it already happened before 2023. These state flagships lost minority trainees to regional, community or for-profit colleges when they stopped using race-conscious admissions due to state restrictions, lawsuits or choice. Some students most likely left college completely.
After 2023, the initial wave of the cascade impact began nationwide, with some minority trainees being turned away from elite schools and rerouted toward state flagships. Certain schools that currently lost race-conscious admissions before 2023 are now seeing bigger gains in Black and Latino enrollment. They already lost Black and Latino students whenever they stopped using race-conscious admissions, so now they are generally just getting trainees from the elite sector: addition without subtraction.Reflecting this vibrant,11 of the 14 public schools with the greatest minority student gains in fall 2024 already abandoned race-conscious admissions before 2023.
Without looking much deeper, these enrollment gains seem like a “win.” Nevertheless, the gains are larger just due to the fact that these institutions already lost minority students well before the Supreme Court judgment.
We must challenge the narrative that mention universities are “winning” with the curtailing of race-conscious admissions. Even gains like higher diversity at public institutions are somewhat illusory.
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Is there a big difference in between participating in the University of Maryland versus Johns Hopkins? Graduates of either will still get an excellent education. The main loss is prestige and access to alumni networks, which are still consequential.
However, another significant damage of the waterfall effect is where trainees in the secondary wave end up when they can not participate in the state flagship or another selective organization. For-profit institutions have low graduation rates, often leaving trainees debt-ridden without any degree. Troublingly, in 2024, Black trainee registration at for-profit organizations across the country was up by 15,000 students. Similar trends occurred in states that prohibited affirmative action before 2023.
Regional and neighborhood colleges provide critical student assistance, however transfer rates are low, and selective organizations tend to have more resources for students.
Princeton economist Zachary Bleemer compared students who barely made the cut to go to a selective University of California organization with peers of comparable backgrounds who attended less selective colleges. The UC students had more powerful grades, better graduation rates, and higher postgraduate earnings. Attending the more selective institution made a distinction.
So yes, the Supreme Court judgment is a disaster for higher education across the board, as I talk about in my brand-new book on admissions. More Black and Latino trainees will end up at schools where they are more likely to experience unfavorable results, and that’s a real problem.
The news should be a wakeup call to extremely selective organizations, which control the upper wave of the cascade result. Institutions must double down on expanding gain access to and chance for Black and Latino candidates, otherwise all organizations and trainees will suffer.
Julie J. Park is Professor of Education at the University of Maryland, College Park. She is author of the new book Race, Class, and Affirmative Action: College Admissions in a New Era (Harvard Education Press).
Contact the viewpoint editor at [email protected].This story about race-conscious admissions was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization concentrated on inequality and innovation in education. Sign up for Hechinger’s weekly newsletter.
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