With outbound numbers down 30% in the past two years– reflecting less trainees leaving India each year– amid tighter policies and increasing costs, the research study abroad market may be slowing. But consultancies say the dip is “short-term” as they adjust to a noticeably different landscape compared to just a couple of years earlier.
According to Ravi Lochan Singh, handling director, Worldwide Reach, the market is gradually returning to pre-Covid levels, which may appear as a “shrinkage” compared to the 2023/24 rise, however need to not be “misread”.
“The decline in trainee numbers is driven by falling interest in the US due to Trumpian policies, a downturn in Canada amidst migration changes and diplomatic tensions, and increasing visa rejections in Australia in recent months. Nevertheless, this need to not be translated as a drop in interest amongst Indian students in studying overseas,” Singh informed The PIE News.
“It is simply that employees taking a trip under the guise of trainees to exploit work provisions are being strained, leaving behind more real students, while others are picking brand-new locations when interest in one country decreases.”
Shift to Europe and East Asia not “anecdotal” any longer
While total university enrolments abroad fell 5.7% to 1.254 million in 2025 after three years of growth, a QS report tasks Indian outgoing movement to grow 4% annually in the coming years.
Pankaj Agrawal, co-founder and CEO, KC Overseas Education, said that while the “big 4”– the United States, UK, Australia and Canada– will stay main destinations in the long run despite more stringent visa and post-study work guidelines, the shift to wider Europe and parts of East and Southeast Asia is no longer “anecdotal”, with gains being seen in queries and conversions.
“Destinations like Ireland, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands in Europe, and Dubai, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea in Asia, are progressively ending up being attractive to worldwide students,” he added.
Trainees today are embracing a portfolio technique to applications. Rather of committing to a single country, they are shortlisting three to four destinations and using throughout them
Suneet Singh Kochar, Fateh Education
Across major study locations, Indian enrolments and visa approvals have decreased over the previous year– with United States research study visa refusal rates at 61%, India’s share of global students in Canada dropping to 8.1% from 51.6% in 2023, Australia seeing over 40% refusals, and 76% of UK universities reporting lower enrolments– while emerging locations inform a various story.
Though unequal, growth across ‘more recent’ destinations has been notable: Indian students in Ireland rose 30% year-on-year to 9,175 in 2024/25; Germany has actually seen a 43% increase over three years to around 60,000; France hosts about 10,000 Indian trainees yearly with a target of 30,000 by 2030; and Malaysia has recorded approximately 79% development to around 4,400 trainees as of 2024.
According to Suneet Singh Kochar, CEO, Fateh Education, Indian students have become more “practical and exploratory”, with the share thinking about several locations rising from around 10-15% in the past to 35-40% today.
“This shift is being driven by a combination of factors– more competitive tuition structures, access to low-priced or even complimentary education in select European markets, and a more powerful overall return on investment,” observed Kochar.
“Trainees today are embracing a portfolio approach to applications. Rather of committing to a single nation, they are shortlisting three to 4 destinations and applying across them, showing a far more structured and risk-mitigated decision-making procedure.”
Regional divide emerges as demand shifts across cities and states
Current reports suggest a dip in overseas education demand has actually forced lots of study abroad consultancies– especially in states like Kerala– to shut workplaces, scale back or diversify, with the market estimated to have actually decreased by 30-40% year-on-year, signalling broader shifts across major sending out states and tier 1 and tier 2 cities in India.
“States like Punjab, Kerala, Gujarat, and Andhra/Telangana are seeing a greater slowdown compared to others,” said Agrawal.
Kochar made a similar point, noting that in markets such as Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, trainee decision-making remains extremely visa-sensitive, with a strong focus on success rates and ease of entry. He included that patterns also differ across cities.
“Tier 1 cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore are witnessing a more fully grown and tactical outlook, with students prioritising long-lasting outcomes such as course significance, alignment with emerging fields like AI, and general roi,” Kochar stated, adding that these factors to consider are just starting to surface area in tier 2 cities.
Agrawal, however, pointed to a much faster move beyond cities. “We are seeing a clear shift in need beyond conventional Tier 1 hubs, with a growing number of students from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities actively exploring overseas education. Improved access to scholarships, education funding, and greater awareness about global chances are essential chauffeurs behind this trend,” he included.
Uncontrolled development and rising examination reshape consultancy design
But consultancies are likewise coming to grips with a structural issue—- unregulated growth– with some firms across major source states implicated in scams and cheating cases in recent years.
Current circumstances underscore the threats: in Kerala, a consultancy was under investigation last year for assisting hundreds of trainees obtain phony graduation certificates for overseas admissions and tasks, while in Chandigarh, cops recorded 433 migration scams cases in between 2021 and 2025 including almost INR 74 crore (over ₤ 577,900), with 232 deceptive firms determined.
With the marketplace tightening and analysis increasing, the easy-growth design– especially for little, aggregator-dependent consultancies– is also beginning to break down.
“Smaller companies likewise grew due to aggregators and following numerous compliance issues. The aggregators have suffered losses and universities have been extremely mindful in including new agents,” stated Singh.
Press grows for merged standards
Could a merged front of consultancies– setting industry-wide standards and codes of conduct– work in a nation like India, where the sector operates with little guideline? Some think so.
“There might be some advantages of gamers in the research study abroad market coming together to function as a collective body instead of operating independently– such as setting common requirements and presenting a single voice when dealing with universities, federal governments or visa authorities,” stated Agrawal.
Kochar likewise stressed the requirement for a more collaborated approach. “A unified approach allows more well balanced and unbiased guidance, permitting students to evaluate opportunities across locations and make better-informed choices,” he stated.
“Over the next three to 5 years, we expect a considerable percentage of consultancies in India to shift towards a merged, multi-country structure, making it the new market standard.”